Thinking Things Through

We have plenty in this month’s issue for you to ponder as the New Year begins. In addition to announcing the 2019 Hot Hands fund, we have our 2019 Outlook, penned by Jeff—which means that it’s also time for our 2018 Scorecard, where we go back and review the calls he made last year at this time. Not surprisingly, it turns out that reasonable expectations and a cautious outlook mean you won’t get caught looking like a fool when someone goes back to check on how you fared as a prognosticator. Unfortunately, the winner of our 2019 Roubini Award for worst market calls of 2018 didn’t fare quite as well. Also in the issue, you can find our 2018 Year in Review, where we mark what happened in every month of 2018 at Vanguard, in the markets and around the world.