February 16, 2017

Resilient Rally

Last Thursday's big jump in the markets was said to be due, at least in part, to a Trump statement that he would make good on a campaign promise to lower taxes. Again, this is part of the Rumor Rally that Dan and I have been talking about for some time now. Investors are buying on the rumor of things to come—tax reform and reduced regulation, in particular—but neither the actual news nor the action is here yet, and when that 'news' finally hits we'll have to see if the promise is matched, or if it provokes some selling. Read More »

February 2017 PDF

Rumor Rally

Wall Street traders recommend that you buy the rumor and sell the news. In other words, you invest on expectations, but if those expectations aren't met, well, hit the sell button. And this post-election rally has been marked mainly by the rumors of what the new administration will do vis-á-vis the economy. Sure, some executive actions have been signed, but there's no Cabinet, Congress hasn't done anything (no surprise there), and we need a lot more evidence that the economy and markets will benefit from policies which haven't yet been delineated. Read More »

December 30, 2016

Hot Hands 2017

My Hot Hands strategy is a mechanical, momentum-based strategy that relies on the idea that hot hands stay hot and that what's worked over the past 12 months should work over the next 12. The numbers are in, and I have just announced the calendar-year Hot Hands pick for the upcoming year. Read More »

Most Recent Forum Threads
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Re: Income generation for retirement

samswaminathan (02-20-2017) wrote: Nero & John, i note your point about O's super high P/E ration. How does WP Carey rate in place of O (P/E Ratio 25)? Read More »


Re: Income generation for retirement

samswaminathan (02-20-2017) wrote: Dear Butwait, Thank you for the X-ray. I am not clear how to achieve this - "You may want to multiply out proportional returns and sum for each year to give you some sense of how the AA portfolio would have done in the past." In order to reduce interest rate... Read More »


Re: Emergency Fund

randyp (02-20-2017) wrote: I'm working on mine right now it got depleted from home repairs roof and Windows and driveway last year. I use American Express savings pays .9 % normally. Read More »

Guidebook 2017 cover
Order your copy of the 2017 Independent Guide to the Vanguard Funds today

"America's leading expert on investing in Vanguard funds"

Daniel P. Wiener is editor of The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors, a monthly newsletter that keeps abreast of recent developments at Vanguard, and the annual FFSA Independent Guide to the Vanguard Funds. Through his newsletter and guide book, Dan helps tens of thousands of Vanguard investors choose wisely among more than 100 Vanguard mutual funds. The Adviser is a five-time winner of the Newsletter Publishers Foundation's Editorial Excellence Award. View More »

Vanguard Funds Correlation
What's This?
Model Portfolio Performance
Models January YTD
Growth 2.7% 2.7%
Conservative Growth 2.4% 2.4%
Income 1.9% 1.9%
Growth Index 2.2% 2.2%
The average
Vanguard investor
1.7% 1.7%
Past Performance »