February 23, 2017

Firing on Many Cylinders

U.S. markets remain in rally mode, but questions are now popping up about just how far they can go and how long this rally can last. In the meantime, Federal Reserve policymakers are making noises that suggest the next interest-rate hike is coming in March. Stock prices are high. I was reading an analysis from the folks at FactSet who report that the forward price-earnings multiple on the S&P 500 index (this is the price of the S&P compared to earnings expectations for the next 12 months) is now higher than its 5-year, 10-year, 15-year and 20-year averages. That takes us back to 1997, of course, which was the beginning of the end of the tech bubble. Read More »

February 2017 PDF

Rumor Rally

Wall Street traders recommend that you buy the rumor and sell the news. In other words, you invest on expectations, but if those expectations aren't met, well, hit the sell button. And this post-election rally has been marked mainly by the rumors of what the new administration will do vis-á-vis the economy. Sure, some executive actions have been signed, but there's no Cabinet, Congress hasn't done anything (no surprise there), and we need a lot more evidence that the economy and markets will benefit from policies which haven't yet been delineated. Read More »

December 30, 2016

Hot Hands 2017

My Hot Hands strategy is a mechanical, momentum-based strategy that relies on the idea that hot hands stay hot and that what's worked over the past 12 months should work over the next 12. The numbers are in, and I have just announced the calendar-year Hot Hands pick for the upcoming year. Read More »

Most Recent Forum Threads
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Re: How much is it safe to have in health care?

JoeC (02-26-2017) wrote: I am sitting at 19.3% in health care according to the Vanguard Portfolio watch. I am ok with that.. Read More »


Re: How much is it safe to have in health care?

Bax (02-26-2017) wrote: I've added health care REITS,as well. Check out CCP - it reports next week. Read More »


Re: Humor for your day

butwait (02-26-2017) wrote: Things were not likely to learn from the elite, celebrity award winners' speeches: "Inside the beltway" we effectively have seven branches of government. The three provided for in the Constitution plus the two political parties whose members vote "the party line" instead of their convictions or what is good for their... Read More »

Guidebook 2017 cover
Order your copy of the 2017 Independent Guide to the Vanguard Funds today

"America's leading expert on investing in Vanguard funds"

Daniel P. Wiener is editor of The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors, a monthly newsletter that keeps abreast of recent developments at Vanguard, and the annual FFSA Independent Guide to the Vanguard Funds. Through his newsletter and guide book, Dan helps tens of thousands of Vanguard investors choose wisely among more than 100 Vanguard mutual funds. The Adviser is a five-time winner of the Newsletter Publishers Foundation's Editorial Excellence Award. View More »

Vanguard Funds Correlation
What's This?
Model Portfolio Performance
Models January YTD
Growth 2.7% 2.7%
Conservative Growth 2.4% 2.4%
Income 1.9% 1.9%
Growth Index 2.2% 2.2%
The average
Vanguard investor
1.7% 1.7%
Past Performance »