February 16, 2017

Resilient Rally

Last Thursday's big jump in the markets was said to be due, at least in part, to a Trump statement that he would make good on a campaign promise to lower taxes. Again, this is part of the Rumor Rally that Dan and I have been talking about for some time now. Investors are buying on the rumor of things to come—tax reform and reduced regulation, in particular—but neither the actual news nor the action is here yet, and when that 'news' finally hits we'll have to see if the promise is matched, or if it provokes some selling. Read More »

February 2017 PDF

Rumor Rally

Wall Street traders recommend that you buy the rumor and sell the news. In other words, you invest on expectations, but if those expectations aren't met, well, hit the sell button. And this post-election rally has been marked mainly by the rumors of what the new administration will do vis-á-vis the economy. Sure, some executive actions have been signed, but there's no Cabinet, Congress hasn't done anything (no surprise there), and we need a lot more evidence that the economy and markets will benefit from policies which haven't yet been delineated. Read More »

December 30, 2016

Hot Hands 2017

My Hot Hands strategy is a mechanical, momentum-based strategy that relies on the idea that hot hands stay hot and that what's worked over the past 12 months should work over the next 12. The numbers are in, and I have just announced the calendar-year Hot Hands pick for the upcoming year. Read More »

Most Recent Forum Threads
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Re: 6 Vanguard Index Funds to Buy and Hold Forever

KevinLangan (02-23-2017) wrote: Good article. What worries me is on this board one day readers see this posting. Then another day they read one that says Buy and Hold is dead. If I were a novice trying to understand how to set up my investing goals I would be confused. There are so many confusing... Read More »


Re: Trend Tracking Indexes - Update

butwait (02-22-2017) wrote: Domestic TTI International TTI Tuesday 02/14/2017 ... Read More »

Guidebook 2017 cover
Order your copy of the 2017 Independent Guide to the Vanguard Funds today

"America's leading expert on investing in Vanguard funds"

Daniel P. Wiener is editor of The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors, a monthly newsletter that keeps abreast of recent developments at Vanguard, and the annual FFSA Independent Guide to the Vanguard Funds. Through his newsletter and guide book, Dan helps tens of thousands of Vanguard investors choose wisely among more than 100 Vanguard mutual funds. The Adviser is a five-time winner of the Newsletter Publishers Foundation's Editorial Excellence Award. View More »

Vanguard Funds Correlation
What's This?
Model Portfolio Performance
Models January YTD
Growth 2.7% 2.7%
Conservative Growth 2.4% 2.4%
Income 1.9% 1.9%
Growth Index 2.2% 2.2%
The average
Vanguard investor
1.7% 1.7%
Past Performance »