May 25, 2017

Earnings Eruption

Nearly all the companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings for the first quarter, and it looks as if the last three months were the strongest in almost six years—since the third quarter of 2011—resulting in earnings growing 13.6% compared to a year ago. That’s significant, given that economic growth was particularly paltry during the period, with GDP up just 1.9% over the past year. We’ll be getting another look at the GDP number tomorrow, but don’t expect a big improvement over the original forecast of 0.7% annualized growth in Q1. Estimates are that they’ll come in at, oh, 0.9%. Read More »

May 2017 PDF

Two-By-Four Tariff

In this month's issue, we're giving more details on the trade we announced in the latest Hotline, hoping to take some risk off the table while capitalizing on the signals we see the market giving off about where the wheels of the market are turning. We've also got a full run-down of Vanguard's 529 plan options, including the changes they've just made to add international bonds to all their portfolios and create a smoother, more gradual glide path for their age-based tracks. (Lifecycle investing with a Vanguard-steered glide path—sound familiar?) We'll also be reviewing tax efficiency—and why you should disregard it. And finally, in a bit of investigative reporting, we finally got a straight answer from Vanguard about what the deal has been with Convertible Securities' tiny dividend since 2012—another tale of troublesome (and troubling) customer service at Vanguard. Read More »

April 4, 2017

Lost Decade Watch

At the start of the year, I told you that 2017’s catchphrase would be the “lost decade,” only this time it would be foreign stocks we’d be talking about. Even though non-U.S. stocks were quick out of the gate during the first quarter, the lost decade is still in play. Read More »

Most Recent Forum Threads
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Re: Trend Tracking Indexes - Update

butwait (05-17-2017) wrote: Domestic TTI International TTI Wednesday 05/10/2017 ... Read More »


Re: The Most Important Rule in Investing

Jona (05-17-2017) wrote: ButWait, Thanks for the very informing article. Just in time for a market day like today. As T4's previous article about keeping too much cash and along with today's market drop, might as well make use of the buying opportunity. I had been holding off since Jan. & put... Read More »


The Most Important Rule in Investing

butwait (05-17-2017) wrote: The Most Important Rule In Investing By: Long/Short Investments, May 16, 2017 8:59 AM ET, 38 comments Summary * The most important question to ask oneself is not “what to invest in” but how to structure the overall portfolio. * The most important rule is to limit downside and minimize drawdowns. * Case in point:... Read More »

Guidebook 2017 cover
Order your copy of the 2017 Independent Guide to the Vanguard Funds today

"America's leading expert on investing in Vanguard funds"

Daniel P. Wiener is editor of The Independent Adviser for Vanguard Investors, a monthly newsletter that keeps abreast of recent developments at Vanguard, and the annual FFSA Independent Guide to the Vanguard Funds. Through his newsletter and guide book, Dan helps tens of thousands of Vanguard investors choose wisely among more than 100 Vanguard mutual funds. The Adviser is a five-time winner of the Newsletter Publishers Foundation's Editorial Excellence Award. View More »

Vanguard Funds Correlation
What's This?
Model Portfolio Performance
Models April YTD
Growth 1.5% 8.1%
Conservative Growth 1.3% 7.5%
Income 1.4% 6.8%
Growth Index 1.3% 7.2%
The average
Vanguard investor
1..0% 5.6%
Past Performance »